Who Can Crash the Sub8/Sub7 Barrier?

Following in the tracks of the INEOS and Nike sponsored Breaking2 attempt to have a man break 2 hours for the marathon distance – albeit with the benefit of a pack of pace runners – triathlon is giving a go at finding a man who can break 7 hours, and a woman who can break 8 hours for the Ironman distance.

Like the marathon project, the Pho3nix Sub 7 and Sub 8 Project will be utilizing one-off conditions designed to foster a faster pace, conditions not allowed in standard non-drafting Ironman competition. During that marathon, Eliud Kipchoge ran on a silky-smooth Italian auto racing track, had squads of a dozen pace setters and no other competitors to get in the way. Kipchoge did indeed succeed – he ran 1:59:40 running in special co-sponsor Nike running shoes.

In the Pho3nix Sub 7 and Sub 8 Project, Kristian Blummenfelt of Norway and Joe Skipper of Great Britain will be the men aiming at breaking 7 hours and Nicola Spirig of Switzerland and Kat Matthews of Great Britain will be the women aiming at breaking 8 hours at the Dekra Lausitzring auto racing track in Brandenburg, Germany. Each of the Sub8 and Sub7 aspirants will be aided by teams of a dozen swim, bike and run specialist pace setters to lead the way on the swim, the bike and the run. While the pace setters are not allowed in standard Ironman contests, the pacesetters will not be allowed to offer any physical assistance.

Other special conditions will be allowed. The swim in Lake Senftenberg will be point to point ruling out sharp corners, crowds, and perhaps ruling in a slight, positive current. The bike course will start with a 16.3 km link to the Velodrome which will be conducted on a 33-lap, smooth surface with mildly banked corners. The marathon will be run on a smooth-surfaced, virtually flat 12-lap course.

The test will be conducted on Sunday, June 5 and will be streamed live wire-to-wire, beginning at 7 AM local time for the women and 8 AM local time for the men. Targeted local finish time will be 3 AM for men and women. The audacious attempt will be held on 5 June 2022 (weather dependent) at the Dekra Lausitzring in Germany.

Self defined Sub8 and Sub 7 goals:

Kristian Blummenfelt
Predicted times
Swim :45 Bike 3:50 Run 2:25 TOTAL 7:00

Joe Skipper
Predicted times:
Swim :49 Bike 3:20 Run 2:37 Total 6:46

Nicola Spirig
Predicted Times:
Swim :50 Bike 4:19 Run 2:45 Total 7:54

Kat Matthews
Swim 50 Bike 4:00 Run 2:40 TOTAL 7:30

Favorites

As with many recent triathlon events, early favorites have scratched and been replaced by healthy alternates. Alistair Brownlee had to withdraw due to health reasons and was replaced by Joe Skipper. Daniela Ryf was replaced by Kat Matthews.

By far the biggest favorite is 28-year-old Kristian Blummenfelt of Norway. Blummenfelt doth bestride the triathlon world like a colossus – 2020 Olympic champion, 2021 World Triathlon Champion, 2022 St. George Utah Ironman World Champion. Most apt is his Ironman debut at Cozumel last November where he set an Ironman record time of 7:21:12 – a time which is closest to his sub-7 hours target this weekend.

Blummenfelt was quite eager for this new test of his prodigious talent. ““When I first heard about the project, it was cool to be asked,” says Blummenfelt. “It’s a unique opportunity: it’s only two guys and two girls racing the full distance.” Even all conquering Blummenfelt was a little fearful. “When I first heard about the project, it was cool to be asked,” Blummenfelt said. t “It’s a unique opportunity: it’s only two guys and two girls racing the full distance. Coming here a few days before the race and seeing how the team has been built together, it just gives me a lot of confidence… I just hope that I can prove that the Norwegian hype is a thing on Sunday.”

Next man up is substitute entry Joe Skipper of Great Britain who recent scored wins at Ironman Florida, Ironman Chattanooga and Ironman UK. Skipper has a shot at knocking off Blummenfelt thanks to his usual 2:44 marathon, and 2:39 marathon.

That challenge is now dawning on Joe Skipper . “Thought it was going to be easier than what it was, to be honest. After going out on the bike and getting an idea of what the pace feels like in the swim, I think it’s definitely doable but it’s going to be pretty hard.”

Skipper knows he can deliver big performances under the gun because he’s done it before. “You’ve got the pressure of the team; you don’t want to let the guys down,” he says. “I’m glad there is a bit of pressure, because otherwise I don’t think I’d get the best out of myself.”

Early Sub7 nominees Daniela Ryf and Lucy Charles-Barclay will not start due to medical woes. So Nicola Spirigof Switzerland and Kat Matthews of Great Britain agreed to fill in.

Recently Kat Mathews finished first at Ironman UK and 2020 Ironman Florida , won her heat at the inaugural Collins Cup and finished fourth at the Ironman 70.3 World Champs before hitting a career breakthrough with a second place at the Ironman World Championship in St. George behind now five-time champion Ryf and ahead of former champion Anne Haug.

On trying to go under eight hours for a full-distance triathlon, Matthews said: “I still think I can beat Nicola, mainly because I think my pacing team is much better. No part of me feels this pressure of, ‘I’ve said I can do it, oh my goodness’. I know I can go sub-eight and I know I can give Nicola a really good race.”

At age 40, and despite little experience in long course, 2012 Olympic champion and 2016 Olympic silver medalist Nicola Spirig of Switzerland has the firepower to contend for a sub-8-hour performance at Brandenburg. That firepower includes a 2:37 standalone marathon and a few 70.3 wins.

If she has any nerves, Spirig is ready to do battle. “This is a huge challenge for me, and I always liked challenges. Now that everyone is here and I see the teams in person, it’s quite nice.”

Spirig, who is racing Sub8 as a swan song having announced her intended retirement at the end of the year, says, “I’m 40 years old. I’m [raising] three kids. I have a 25-year career. And it just shows that you can achieve a lot if you really go for it and you really give a lot to achieve it. And I hope that inspires other people to do the same with their dreams, their hopes, their goals.”

The history of Ironman bests

Men
Dave Scott first to break 10 hours – 1981 Kona 9:24:33
Dave Scott first to break 9 hours -1984 Kona 8:54:20
Lothar Leder GER – first to break 8 hours 1996 Challenge Roth 7:57:02
Luc Van Lierde BEL1997 Challenge Roth 7:50:27
2016 Challenge Roth Jan Frodeno 7:35:39
2021 Battle Royale Allgau Germany Jan Frodeno 7:27:53.
November 2021 – Kristian Blummenfelt Ironman Cozumel 7:21:12

Women
1980 Ironman Hawaii Lyn Lemaire 12:55:38
1986 Kona Paula Newby Fraser – first woman to break 10 hours 9:54:14
1991 Thea Sybesma NED Ironman Germany First woman under 9 hours 8:55:29
1994 Roth Germany Paula Newby Fraser 8:50:53
2008 Roth Yvonne Van Vlerken NED New record 8:45:48
2009 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:31:59
2010 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:29
2011 Chrissie Wellington Roth 8:18:13
2018 Daniela Ryf Ironman Kona 8:26:18 – S 57:26 B 4:26:07 T 2:57:05